The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources fcn chat mesajlaÅŸma and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Introduction
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
System character model of urbanization under times limits from inside the Asia
Though metropolitan expansion would speed opportunity application 17,18,19 , the newest automotive electricity explore does correlate adversely for the urbanization peak because of economies away from scale 20,21,twenty-two . For-instance, significantly more urbanized areas into the Canada ate down for each capita times 23 . At the same time, full time usage of outlying house try bigger than that of urban domiciles, since the more 85% out of outlying home play with unproductive solid fuel twenty-four . Based on Customer Studies Program, 275 places in the world explore hydropower, 189 places play with breeze power, and you can 184 locations have fun with solar photovoltaic stamina. At least one hundred metropolitan areas explore renewable power to get to 70% from electricity, such as for instance Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you may Nairobi. In the us, 58 towns, as well as Atlanta and you may San diego, has actually intends to changeover in order to a hundred% neat and renewable energy. For the established technology and energy sites, it is anticipated to go 100% renewable power supply global and you can get to zero carbon emissions from the 2025. The global fuel generation structure from inside the 2050 is anticipated as the less than: solar solar pv (69%), breeze stamina (18%), hydropower (8%), and you will biomass (2%), having time stores batteries coating 31% out-of fuel request. It is listed that all of planet’s premier dams and you may electricity plants come in China, when you’re Yunnan Province and you may Guizhou Province contribute 30% from China’s hydropower. This new Jinsha River by yourself enjoys a nine-top dam. The energy generated by these hydropower is actually individually sent to help you Guangdong and you will Hong kong from highest-current grid. Because of the abundant hydropower resources readily available for cooling, Guizhou State has be China’s vital study cardio ft. For the 2018, Fruit Company built the fresh iCloud data center inside Guizhou. Every higher They team out of Asia has build data centers inside Guizhou, along with Alibaba, Huawei, and you can China Mobile.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.